Monday, November 23, 2015

The other 5%

The other 5%

Terrorism is scary because we cannot rationalize how it changes how long we can reasonably expect to live. But even within a peaceful environment, statistics and experience often tell difference stories.

Learnt today that life expectancy is a misnomer. It isn't the number of years you can expect to live to in the manner you can expect to get paid a salary for your month's work.

Its more like the age you start realizing that you have more friends who are dead than those still alive.

Let's say your country has a published life expectancy at birth (LEB) of 75. What they may not tell you is statistically the standard deviation is 15.

From an engineering perspective, the layman idea of "expect" can be expressed as "having a 95% possibilities of", or, statistically, the range between plus and minus two sigma (standard deviations).

This translates to mean you can be 95% confident of not dying before 45, and 68% confident of not dying before 60!

And these are the numbers that look a little more real to me, on a personal level. It makes me remember the other 5% - and their final Facebook posts. It makes me remember the time when they took hold of life and lived the day, and looked damn fucking good owning it.

Honestly, retirement and longevity is a really terrifying twosome. But I feel strangely comforted that life is more unexpected than I normally (read: "Gaussian-ly") imagine, and that living with pain and on a budget until you're 90 years old isn't the only future I should imagine. I don't buy Pascal's Wager : life finds a way.

Lesson of the day: life is risky. Take the leap, take the fall, and make sure you're looking fucking good owning it.

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